Technical Analysis with Vincent Moretti

Why do clients pay me for my expert analysis? Well it's simple really. I win money every football season. Period. If my records are proof positive enough for you then let me share a few of my technical handicapping secrets that sheds a little light on what separates a professional handicapper from the weekend warriors that are blindly throwing darts at the odds board each week. In conjunction with my industry knowledge, I use a formula of proven technical analysis that has allowed me to identify the highest percentage plays on the board. In a nutshell, here is how my award winning sausage is made:

Step 1.) I scan the opening lines, specifically for the conferences that I follow closely, and highlight the set of games that immediately jump off the page at me. This is a pure instinctive response to what I view the line should be as opposed to what the Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSN) team has set the line at. Remember that people, assisted with statistical programs, are used to set the weekly lines. My advantage is that I know certain teams and conferences better than the people setting the lines. The LVSN is burdened with the task of setting the line for hundreds of games each weekend, and my job each week is to spot those handfuls of games with loose lines.

Step 2.)  Obviously I do my best to lock down early lines when I forecast a big line jump.  The majority of the time the public will move the line in my favor, and I do indeed watch the public's betting action. Every weekend there is half a dozen games that jump 2, 3 and sometimes 4 or more points. When this happens you can bet your ass that the Las Vegas Sports Consultants dropped the ball and the Sharps are punishing them for these loose lines. My adage is to "follow the Sharps"; they are right more times than they are wrong. Ideally I try and spot these up ticks immediately with injury and or weather supported data. Totals are often much more advantageous than ATS lines. I try and get in early, but even if you don't get in early, I always take the team in which the line moved in their favor. For example in week seven the Indianapolis Colts vs. St. Louis opened at 10 1/2, but within hours this line moved to 12 and then finally settled in at 13'. The Sharps saw big opportunity and jumped on it. The Colts won that game 42-6 and easily covered the spread. Also note that when lines move to 9', 13', 20', etc and do go over the denominations of 3 or 7 whole numbers, then this is more reason to bet these lines.

Step 3.)  I then do research of past game schedules to see if they have played any same teams and look at comparables and score trends. This technique is called game match extrapolation - to infer from something that is known or to estimate (a function that is known over a range of values of its independent variable) to values outside the known range. An example of this was this past weekend (week 8), with the Air Force -6' @ Colorado State match-up. Employing my extrapolation technique I looked back at the schedule and saw that both Colorado State and Air Force had earlier in the season played TCU. Air Force played a tough TCU team close losing 17-20 and Colorado St. got blown out by TCU 44-6. All things being equal this indicates to me that Air Force -6' was a very loose line. Air Force beat Colorado State 34-16 easily covering the spread. You can use the same extrapolation formulas for totals. While I liked the Air Force line, I like the total in this Air Force/Colorado State game even more and the Over 44.5 was another easy winner this past weekend.

So there you have the secrets to my winning recipe. I don't mind sharing because it is hard to duplicate and I know my clients don't have the time each week required to be a successful handicapper. Research is power and is what separates the professional handicappers from the weekend warriors.